Monday, January 16, 2017

Delving into demonetization issue, when the Govt of India went in for note ban of Rs 500 and Rs.1000 it was very clear that it had not done its  home work. And in the process, within 50 days 65 different notifications have been issued, confusing the bankers and the people in general, leading to utter chaos every where. In order to cope up with this failure and to divert the attention of masses another misadventure was launched I.e Cashless Economy, and even this was an unprepared initiative. Implementation of  complete digitisation would mean heavy buying  of "swiping machines " from them or to some extent from Taiwan. Digitisation would also entail buying cards from US. Every time you are swiping a card at restaurants, clubs and malls, you are swiping a MasterCard or Visa card, you are making these US giants rich in the process. 
According to reports, the conservative estimates put the commission on the transaction earned by  the card companies of VISA and Banks, at Rs 8000/ crores in year ,2015-16.This commission also called transaction cost, is expected to touch, Rs 68.000 crores, (about $10 billions) a year on the so-called cashless purchases and now with the present situation it may increase tenfold  from Rs 4 lakh crores in the last fiscal to 34.11 crores or 15 percent of GDP by the year 2020. Is this not a staggering amount of benefit for these CARD companies?
  It seems there are about 2.74 crore credit cards in India while the debit cards are around 73.92 crores by the end of Oct 2016, taking total credit and debit cards together 76.66  crores.Interestingly India's homegrown card brand RUPAY leads the global brands with as many as 31.7 crore cards linked to Jan-Dhan Yojana accounts but majority of them are said to be inactive.
  As per another report, the RBI made Rs. 78.57 crore transactions valued at Rs 240. 662 crore through cards at "point of sale" (POS) machines during 2015-16 and total credit and debit card transactions were valued at Rs 4 lakh crores, ( $58.5 billion) last fiscal. But we have to remember that the card transactions won't come free.They come at a staggering cost ,however the service charges they levy may not be revealed.
   As per RBI mandate the Banks that provide swiping machines are allowed to charge 1 percent of the transaction amount, on debit card transactions exceeding Rs 2000/ and it is 0.75 percent MDR ( Merchant Discount Rate) or say Commissions on the transaction lower than Rs 2000/. The interesting element here is that merchants shouldn't collect MDR from customers as they are required to absorb it , but as we see it is not true, as many of them collect routinely higher MDR , 1 to 2 percent.The service charges appear to be insignificant but they bring in windfall gains to the Card companies and Banks. In the current fiscal card transactions totaling amount of Rs 2,95,000/ crores were made during 2015-16 till Oct 2016, with service charges working at Rs 5900 crores at the rate of 2 percent and now it may increase 10 fold in the cashless transactions in due course.
 As India pushes for digital transaction post note ban ,there is an unlikely beneficiary from country's cashless journey--China .We all are aware, India has sent Rockets To Moon and Mars, but surprisingly we have no company that can manufacture Swiping Machines on a large scale. .As a result we are importing 90 percent from China and to some extent from Taiwan. With digital push reaching higher scale, the traders are scrambling for Swiping Machines to tide over cash crunch.
As per estimates India has imported nearly 1 lakh units only last year and now in the present demonetised situation the total imports may be around 2 million units.The devices are priced between Rs 5000--15000/ and it is estimated that India requires around 5 crore units and we have to shell foreign exchange between Rs. 2000 crores to Rs 67500 crores to import 90 percent devices from China.
 This is the net effect of present day Demonetisation,and cashless economy and this is bird's eye view of what I have understood for all the TV discussions and media reports.