Friday, March 16, 2018

The defeat of BJP in all six Lok Sabha seats where by-elections were held this year has alarmed the party in UP ahead of 2019 Parliamentary polls. While stoking speculation about the opposition stitching an alliance together to take on the ruling, after tasting success in the recent bypolls. If the reverses in MP, Rajasthan bypolls has put the ruling dispensation on the back foot, the UP and Bihar by poll results must have come as a rude shock. In fact, both Gorakhpur and Phulpur were held by CM Yogi Adityanath and KP Maurya, DCM respectively. Now it is increasingly becoming evident that the NDA’s sheen is wearing off and voters have begun to see through the government’s boasts about its non-existent achievements. I'm unable to comprehend the result of Gorakhpur, especially, because, Yoginath is five-time MP and had tremendous influence. On our way to Muktinath, Nepal, I met him personally for half an hour in his Gorakhpur Ashram, this was just 4 days before he became CM of UP last year.  He was so kind, that he has arranged accommodation for us in his Guest House, on our return from Nepal. The loosing of the seat was a surprise for me, and now I can imagine the prevailing discontentment among the voters of that place.
NDA established its superiority in the last Lok Sabha elections and won more than 300 seats, while it got exclusively for BJP 282 seats and it was able to form the government on its own, but over the period its strength was dwindling. Now its strength has come down to 272, and even if it gets reduced by one, it will only be a minority government. When it had 282, numbers, its style was different as they didn't have to depend on alliance partners. In fact,  partners were at its mercy, which we have seen Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena, saying that he was being seen with suspicion but BJP just brushed aside all such utterances.
It looks like their friends were waiting to see this precarious situation for the party and expecting that they would be taken into confidence while Congress seems to be brimming with joy as it faced humiliating defeat with only 44 seats in 2014 and in this four years period another 4 got added when it won by-elections.
Normally, all by-elections, only ruling party will win. What is more surprising is even in Bihar J.D. and NDA combine lost to Lalu’s RJD.
Last LokSabha elections BJP had 46 regional /national parties, on its side with Amit Shah,  had enlisted good support, but subsequently, one after the other allies are leaving it. With Shivsena and TDP, major chunk went out while Akalidal is just waiting in the wings.  Now BJP looks to be isolated.
In view of the present situation, the party has to do real introspection and make amends as it has only one year time for next elections.