News Papers Headings ”Phir Ek bar Modi Sarkar, Predict polls” a couple of days ago.  Exit and opinion polls at times gauge the mood of the nation very well, but most of the times they fail to predict the final result with reasonable accuracy. A small sample survey can not be considered as the pulse of the people. What better example do we need other than Australia, where the ruling Conservative coalition won surprisingly in the country’s General Election, defying all opinion and Exit polls. Now in India, all Exit polls have indicated a victory for NDA. The favourite illustration critics present for condemnation is the projections of 2004 General Election -Indeed both opinion polls and Exit polls blundered perhaps blinded by the rhetoric of “India shining.”

In 2004 NDA was projected to win between 230 & 275 seats, and UPA in the range of 176-190 seats. Actual results found the pollsters on the wrong side of both trajectory and tally -the NDA won 187and UPA 219seats. The BJP won 138 and Congress 145 seats. Five years later 2009 the Exit polls got the trajectory right but missed the tally --the trajectory for UPA was a low 185 and high 205. And for NDA it was 165 and 195. On the results, day UPA won 262 and NDA got 159. The performance of the pollsters in 2014 was similar -- they got the mood of the voters but missed the tally by a wide margin.

The concept of Exit polls used across the world is an innovation of Warren J Mitofsky. While at Census Bureau Mitofsky designed a number of surveys. He also devised a random digit dial long system for phone polling voters and went on to create the CBS News/New York Times poll. Success Mitofsky underlined, required trained interviewers, an established pattern, and preciseness in calculations.

In India, it’s a different story altogether. Are the psephological surveys such as Exit polls scientifically and logically conducted without partisan biases and prejudices? Do they conduct sample surveys of political preferences of illiterate masses, living in the remote rural areas, hilly terrains, and ghettos? Is it not a fact that psephologists simply conduct interviews and elicit views with the urban voters who are found to be indecisive and apathetic and take the entire process as a joke cracked by vested interests? The truth is the electoral results are decided by mute but mighty masses who despite their vast illiteracy keep their ear to the ground and assess correctly the contesting candidate’s credentials and pass judgment on his performance and promise.

Here the polling is over and results are preserved in EVMs. When people have been patiently waiting for months for results this time, and results will now be out in a day or two, I fail to understand what purpose does it serve to announce Exit poll results now? At most the TRP ratings could be increased for the news channels which in turn promotes immoral betting activities, in the society. Is it fair to encourage public towards speculative activities, instead of educating them in superstitions and other false beliefs?

Predicting an election in the world’s largest democracy has to take into account several factors ranging from caste religion, region, money power to voting percentages. We need fresh methodology and techniques as the results of every election redefine the rules of psephological surveys.
This election what was astonishing to me was, scant concern for corruption issues, was surprising as it was the focal point in 2014 election, and what was equally disturbing is the lack of interest in addressing the most dreadful problem farmer death and peripheral issues related it. All this the ruling dispensation had conveniently side-tracked and the opposition has fallen in the trap. In 2014 it was Modi wave, this time around there is no ”wave” or “under current” being felt by man or woman on the street. So just let us wait for the real verdict on 23rd of this month.

BJP supporters and BJP leaders have taken this notion that Congress has not done anything for the development of the nation in the last 67 years, has taken a propgandic proportions after Modi took over as PM.  So today I would like to jog the memories of BJP leaders and supporters. They try to create an impression that in the last seven decades Congress did nothing, and in their speeches, they give an impression as if India has evolved as leading democratic power only in these last 4 years. And as if only Modi has to be credited for India's economic, financial and infrastructural development.
India got its freedom 3 years before Modiji was born. In 1948 immediately after partition, a war took place between Pakistan and India, and we won.  About 500 princely states, including Hyderabad, got merged in the Indian Union, due to untiring efforts by Patel, Dy PM. Indian Constitution, one of the best in the world was prepared and executed W.E.F 26th Jan 1950.   Indian Govt under Panditji had hosted Asian games in New Delhi in1951 (4th to11th March). Govt under Nehru introduced India’s first five-year plan which defined the model of centralised economic planning and Development. By the time Modiji was 2years Old, First general elections were held in1952. PM Nehru being a great visionary, he could establish Atomic Energy Establishment at Trombay on 3rd Jan1954, which was later renamed as Bhabha Atomic  Research  Centre. Several very important Public sector undertakings like Bharat petroleum, BEL, Hindustan Antibiotics, Hindustan shipyard were made operational, but unfortunately, now if you see many of the PSUs Navarathna companies are ready for privatisation and reasons for it, I want you to comprehend.

Indian Army once again moved into action to liberate Goa, from Portuguese, which was made a Union Territory in Indian Union. This was all done by the Congress government when Modi was not even 11 years old and a year later Pondicherry ruled by French, got merged in Indian Union. In1961 Govt Established, IIMs, in Calcutta, and Ahmedabad and Later IITs at Kharagpur, Bombay, Madras, Kanpur, and Delhi were established and they are all one of the world’s best Institutes, and you know these institutions and Dozens of Indian Universities, have produced top-notch professionals in few thousands since then. We have built BhakraDam on Sutlej, which was the third largest reservoir, and it was described as "New Temple Of Resurgent India” Rihand Dam In UP was also constructed which is India’s largest artificial lake.

When Modi was just 14, HAL was formed in 1964, which was a consortium of Hindustan Aircraft Ltd, and IAF Aircraft Manufacturing Depot, Kanpur, which has already started manufacturing Aircraft’s and Helicopters and if you remember, the same HAL was to be given the Rafale, but who snatched away, and how it happened, is anybody’s guess. Remember, when Modi was 15 years Old, India fought another war with Pakistan 1965, and Indian Army reached Lahore outskirts. Just for crossing the border we are doing a lot of chest thumping in the name of so-called surgical strikes now, and it was 65, our army reached Lahore. In1967, by the time Modiji was 17, the foundation for the Green Revolution was laid,  farmers harvested the first crop of high-yielding wheat. From the era of hand to mouth we became self-sufficient, in production of wheat. If you remember it was Indira who released a special stamp in 1968. The Govt of India created ISRO in 1969 and in the same year, Indira nationalised 14 major scheduled commercial banks for the nation’s development, the same year Tarapur Atomic power station was made operational, which produced 210MW of power.

In 1971 we fought a 3rd war with  Pakistan(Our Modiji must have been 21 years old), and Bangladesh was created as an Independent Nation.1974 Pokhran Nuclear tests were conducted much before our Modiji entered politics. We got our super computer and Application of Information Technology was completed, and when he became 41years, Narasimha Raoji As PM liberated the economy while Manmohansingh was FM then, who was made PM subsequently, in 2004-2014.

Much before Modi became PM Indian government took initiatives for “Chandrayan, Mangalyaan, GSLV, Mono-rail, Nuclear sub-marine, Agni missile, Chetak, Arjun tank, Sukhoi, Dhanesh, etc. Therefore, what I want to reiterate here is, that India as such a very powerful nation with a robust economy and with all this, it is proved beyond doubt, that lot of efforts have gone  into building this great nation, now our great people will blame Nehru for anything and everything very unfairly, which really pains. I had to collect a lot of information, to answer those who say “kuch bhi nahi hua sattar  sal me.” Even after all this history, which they  may hesitate to read, as they think, it’s only surgical strikes that are great, they forget that our forces, are capable of attacking enemy at any point in time, because they do their job, but taking credit by ruling dispensation, was never done by either Nehru or Mrs. Gandhi. And infact credit was given to the forces only.