News Papers Headings ”Phir Ek bar Modi Sarkar, Predict polls” a couple of days ago. Exit and opinion polls at times gauge the mood of the nation very well, but most of the times they fail to predict the final result with reasonable accuracy. A small sample survey can not be considered as the pulse of the people. What better example do we need other than Australia, where the ruling Conservative coalition won surprisingly in the country’s General Election, defying all opinion and Exit polls. Now in India, all Exit polls have indicated a victory for NDA. The favourite illustration critics present for condemnation is the projections of 2004 General Election -Indeed both opinion polls and Exit polls blundered perhaps blinded by the rhetoric of “India shining.”
In 2004 NDA was projected to win between 230 & 275 seats, and UPA in the range of 176-190 seats. Actual results found the pollsters on the wrong side of both trajectory and tally -the NDA won 187and UPA 219seats. The BJP won 138 and Congress 145 seats. Five years later 2009 the Exit polls got the trajectory right but missed the tally --the trajectory for UPA was a low 185 and high 205. And for NDA it was 165 and 195. On the results, day UPA won 262 and NDA got 159. The performance of the pollsters in 2014 was similar -- they got the mood of the voters but missed the tally by a wide margin.
The concept of Exit polls used across the world is an innovation of Warren J Mitofsky. While at Census Bureau Mitofsky designed a number of surveys. He also devised a random digit dial long system for phone polling voters and went on to create the CBS News/New York Times poll. Success Mitofsky underlined, required trained interviewers, an established pattern, and preciseness in calculations.
In India, it’s a different story altogether. Are the psephological surveys such as Exit polls scientifically and logically conducted without partisan biases and prejudices? Do they conduct sample surveys of political preferences of illiterate masses, living in the remote rural areas, hilly terrains, and ghettos? Is it not a fact that psephologists simply conduct interviews and elicit views with the urban voters who are found to be indecisive and apathetic and take the entire process as a joke cracked by vested interests? The truth is the electoral results are decided by mute but mighty masses who despite their vast illiteracy keep their ear to the ground and assess correctly the contesting candidate’s credentials and pass judgment on his performance and promise.
Here the polling is over and results are preserved in EVMs. When people have been patiently waiting for months for results this time, and results will now be out in a day or two, I fail to understand what purpose does it serve to announce Exit poll results now? At most the TRP ratings could be increased for the news channels which in turn promotes immoral betting activities, in the society. Is it fair to encourage public towards speculative activities, instead of educating them in superstitions and other false beliefs?
Predicting an election in the world’s largest democracy has to take into account several factors ranging from caste religion, region, money power to voting percentages. We need fresh methodology and techniques as the results of every election redefine the rules of psephological surveys.
This election what was astonishing to me was, scant concern for corruption issues, was surprising as it was the focal point in 2014 election, and what was equally disturbing is the lack of interest in addressing the most dreadful problem farmer death and peripheral issues related it. All this the ruling dispensation had conveniently side-tracked and the opposition has fallen in the trap. In 2014 it was Modi wave, this time around there is no ”wave” or “under current” being felt by man or woman on the street. So just let us wait for the real verdict on 23rd of this month.
In 2004 NDA was projected to win between 230 & 275 seats, and UPA in the range of 176-190 seats. Actual results found the pollsters on the wrong side of both trajectory and tally -the NDA won 187and UPA 219seats. The BJP won 138 and Congress 145 seats. Five years later 2009 the Exit polls got the trajectory right but missed the tally --the trajectory for UPA was a low 185 and high 205. And for NDA it was 165 and 195. On the results, day UPA won 262 and NDA got 159. The performance of the pollsters in 2014 was similar -- they got the mood of the voters but missed the tally by a wide margin.
The concept of Exit polls used across the world is an innovation of Warren J Mitofsky. While at Census Bureau Mitofsky designed a number of surveys. He also devised a random digit dial long system for phone polling voters and went on to create the CBS News/New York Times poll. Success Mitofsky underlined, required trained interviewers, an established pattern, and preciseness in calculations.
In India, it’s a different story altogether. Are the psephological surveys such as Exit polls scientifically and logically conducted without partisan biases and prejudices? Do they conduct sample surveys of political preferences of illiterate masses, living in the remote rural areas, hilly terrains, and ghettos? Is it not a fact that psephologists simply conduct interviews and elicit views with the urban voters who are found to be indecisive and apathetic and take the entire process as a joke cracked by vested interests? The truth is the electoral results are decided by mute but mighty masses who despite their vast illiteracy keep their ear to the ground and assess correctly the contesting candidate’s credentials and pass judgment on his performance and promise.
Here the polling is over and results are preserved in EVMs. When people have been patiently waiting for months for results this time, and results will now be out in a day or two, I fail to understand what purpose does it serve to announce Exit poll results now? At most the TRP ratings could be increased for the news channels which in turn promotes immoral betting activities, in the society. Is it fair to encourage public towards speculative activities, instead of educating them in superstitions and other false beliefs?
Predicting an election in the world’s largest democracy has to take into account several factors ranging from caste religion, region, money power to voting percentages. We need fresh methodology and techniques as the results of every election redefine the rules of psephological surveys.
This election what was astonishing to me was, scant concern for corruption issues, was surprising as it was the focal point in 2014 election, and what was equally disturbing is the lack of interest in addressing the most dreadful problem farmer death and peripheral issues related it. All this the ruling dispensation had conveniently side-tracked and the opposition has fallen in the trap. In 2014 it was Modi wave, this time around there is no ”wave” or “under current” being felt by man or woman on the street. So just let us wait for the real verdict on 23rd of this month.
