According to social scientist Ashish Nandi had observed that any duly elected popular government would start slowly loosing its sheen after about one and half years. In 1986 it was Shabano case for Rajiv Gandhi government, implementation of Madal commission report by V P Singh Govt in 1992 and P V Narasimha Rao Govt in Babri Masjid,are few examples in this regard. The iron man of Gujarat Modi also must be facing similar situation if I'm right. It is not because of any wrong decision, I would say, but owing to some mistakes in other areas of administration, his popularity is on decline as per the reports.
While Modi is on decline, one of my Delhi friends says, there is a chance for congress to revive, which really made me to surprise as Rahul has become not only proactive, now a days, mixing with common man, all this after coming back from 2 months leave, but it is to be really seen whether this tempo could be sustained for another 4 years. In fact the same gentleman went to the extent of telling me that Rahul may even lead the party to victory in the hustings in 2019. I'm at a loss to understand the basis for his assumption. But the fact of the matter is if we go back in history in 1997 Indira Gandhi was defeated within three years she came back to power. Similarily in 1998 Rajiv lost in polls and again in 1991 he would have come back to power had he been not assassinated. In view of all this history and also due to decline in Modi's popularity may be 10 Janpath must be hoping for the best.
If it is critically examined, in realistic sense from other angle that history gets repeated, may not hold good, as certain facts can never be overlooked. The fact is that congress is very weak organisationally and in process lost in many states. Rahul lacks the charisma which Rajiv and Indira had while the present generation would not appreciate the dynastic role in India. The voter now would not see who are his ancestors, but would see the quality of the leadership.
In the present democratic India, a credible opposition leader with high integrity is the need of the hour, because after Nehru and Indira, Modi is a very powerful leader in the country is an indisputable fact. He has full command over the party and government which no other prime minister had except Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Both Nehru and Indira had to face very stiff opposition leaders but in case of Modi he has not faced a strong opposition leader.
Looking back into history once again during 1947-50 even within the Congress people had an alternative in Sardar Patel, another power centre and Nehru had to invariably take his views into confidence and respect Patel's view while deciding the candidature of the first president of India. With Patel's demise in 1950 Nehru became undisputed leader in the party and government, but the situation in the parliament was different as he had to face very strong leaders like, Shyama Prasad Mukhrejee in Jansang, Hiren Mukhrejee, AK Gopalan etc from communists. But all of them used to make constructive criticism which Nehru used to appreciate as a true democrat.
In 1974-75 Jayaprakash Narayan fought against the rampant corruption against Indira and she had to promulgate emergency to keep her baiters in jails and in the process she lost 1977 elections miserably.As I understand from the reports Modi feels he is a very tall leader of the day like Nehru while he has scant respect for Constitutionally independent institutions like Indira. In fact, these two are very dangerous trends in a democratically elected governments and for controlling such irrational tendencies a credible opposition is essential. When Nehru had Kriplani and Rajaji while Indira had Jayaprakash, but there is no one for to question Modi or to face him?
Since there is ample scope to speak against Modi on many important issues like appointing inefficient ministers, for encouraging religious intolerance but MPs and ministers and also for giving preference to loyalty rather than efficiency in political and administrative appointments.
All these are very disturbing situations and the situation of opposition is also further more disturbing while most of the Regional parties are bogged down under heavy corruption and other issues while in Delhi people had some hope in AAP but it had dug its own grave and we are seeing the down trending of the Congress is continuing. Imm
ediately after Modi's take over in an year the crude oil prices went down and the economists felt that Modi is lucky enough and he would be further lucky if Rahul continued as his opponent.
