Saturday, June 27, 2020

The current Indo-Chinese situation gives us a sense of Deja Vu. Looks like Chinese governments believe in a confrontational attitude and have antipathy towards peaceful coexistence.
I think India cannot tread a path of total confrontation, coerced by passion-driven public opinion.  It was easy to blame Nehru for everything that happened in 1962 but after more than 5 decades our position is no better, we still lost a colonel, 20 soldiers, and 10 members have been captured by them (released later).
Today I would like to focus on the most trending topic and also one that is on top of every Indian's mind at this point #boycottchinesegoods.
It’s not that easy to boycott Chinese products when they constitute a substantial percentage of our imports. Not only India, but China has also made several other nations, including the so-called Bigbrother US, dependent on it for various types of goods by its strategic export policies and humongous domestic capabilities built up over many years. To say goodbye to China needs an elaborative plan of action. India can not disengage from the business entirely. From Yoga teachers to IT behemoths, there are plenty of interests entrenched there. Here we need not get carried away by a nationalistic pitch but need to recognise our strengths and weaknesses, without getting downbeat. Everyone knows India doesn’t have enough economic muscle to flex around.
Undeniably Chinese products occupy much of the space on the shelves of shops and stores in India. China has not just developed a niche market, it has diversified into all products and overwhelmed the Indian market. Whatever their quality, Chinese products are relatively cheaper and more affordable and face no serious competition. Experts are divided on the issue of imports from China. While some endorse the boycott call, others favour more tariffs. For people to shift their brand loyalty they have to have an option. To what extent the ban will moderate Chinese behaviour towards India, is not clear. Whether the threat to boycott Chinese products, can be used as a bargaining chip at the negotiation table, too, is not clear. Self-reliance and “make in India “ are worthy goals which we should actualise.
Despite the obvious asymmetry between two nations —the size of India’s economy is one-fourth of China’s while Beijing enjoys military superiority—India continues to push above its weight. Therefore banning Chinese goods may be counterproductive, given the dynamics of bilateral trade. India imports a lot of intermediate goods from China and stopping that trade will affect the country’s ability to produce finished goods and the overall competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. Such a move will be counterproductive in the import-dependent sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and telecommunications, etc.
The harsh reality is that India’s poor share in global trade is a reflection of its acute lack of competitiveness. Domestic bottlenecks such as poor infrastructure, lack of reliable power, logistical delays, regulatory hurdles, and problems in enforcing contracts are some of the real culprits. Therefore to say goodbye to Chinese goods we need elaborate economic infrastructural planning.